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Return of Venezuela Sanctions Would Curb Output Gains: Reuters

OIL

Analysts told Reuters that a return of sanctions on Venezuela would cause its crude output to stagnate, erasing any recent gains made.

  • The temporary license will expire April 18 unless renewed. The US has said it will not do so unless there is more progress towards a democratic election this year.
  • Oil production was 783k b/d in 2023, compared to 569k b/d in 2020.
  • Production is expected to grow slightly from 2024-2026, before declining onwards if sanctions are fully restored.
  • If the license is extended, it would create a modest increase in output to above 1m b/d from 2025.
  • The fate of authorisation granted by the US since 2022 to Chevron, ENI, Repsol, and Maurel 7 Prom remains unclear. If these licenses remain while under sanctions, production would still decline but not collapse, analysts told Reuters.
Energy BulletsCommodities
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