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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Bloomberg survey median is looking for a 500k increase in Sept payrolls, though the skew is to the downside (avg 475k, range 0-750k, with 117k standard deviation - see chart).
- The better-than-consensus calls eye a return to work post-unemp benefits expiry, and the start of the school year (resulting in increases in public sector jobs, and allowing parents to return to work). Many are looking to an upward revision to August's figures, so a Sept 'miss' could be mitigated somewhat by the net 2-month change number.
- The weaker-than-consensus calls cite Delta Covid concerns holding back job uptake by potential workers, a lag in the return to work following school openings, and little evidence that states which ended benefits in July had a strong jobs pickup.
- That doesn't even touch on the more extreme forecasts, including a St Louis Fed model pointing to -818k (-500k without seasonal adj)., based on data from Homebase (which provides payroll/timesheet tools primarily for small businesses, incl restaurant / retail and services businesses).
Distribution of NFP estimates in BBG survey, '000sSource: BBG, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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