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Returning ECB Speak Sticks to Script, EUR/GBP Holds Inside Downtrend

FOREX
  • ECB speakers have returned after Thursday's rate decision, with Simkus, Panetta, Vujcic and others voicing their view on policy going forward. ECB members stuck to the messaging laid down by Lagarde yesterday, stressing that the rate cut path ahead is data dependent, and not date dependent - leaving market pricing with few fresh clues.
  • Markets moves have left EUR/GBP inside the downtrend channel drawn off the late December high. 0.8521 marks the next downside level ahead of stronger support into 0.8493. EUR/USD now closely pinned to one of the most sizeable option expiries rolling off at today's cut, with E1.1bln rolling off at 1.0850 today.
  • An early uptick in the US yield curve has faltered, helping cement a recovery off lows for both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Moves similarly mirror the ~10 point creep higher for the e-mini S&P, steadying prices and sentiment into the NY crossover.
  • CHF is among the session's strongest performers on the day, however markets are largely reversing the weakness noted in the currency Thursday. USD/CHF remains either side of the 50-dma, which has proved a strong magnet for prices across the past fortnight. 0.8607 remains the first support, weakness through which opens 0.8577 and below.
  • Focus for the remainder of the week rests on the personal income/spending data for December, as well as the last PCE deflator stats before next week's Fed decision. FOMC members remain inside their pre-decision media blackout period.
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