Reuters Poll Suggests Sept Taper Announce Still Not Fully Expected

A Reuters survey of economists published Friday saw 28 of 43 respondents say they expect the Fed to announce at the September FOMC meeting a decision to taper asset purchases. The remainder saw November and December as potential announcement dates - so no-one saw an announcement any later than 2021.

• A cumulative 80% saw the taper beginning on or before the January 2021 FOMC meeting (42% for January specifically, with the remainder split between October, November and December).
• The vast majority saw the program ending by 4Q 2022 (84%), with 59% saying it would end in 4Q itself 35% thought it would end in the first 3 quarters of the year, while 16% saw it ending later).
• Nothing too surprising, but interesting to see that expectations haven't really shifted that much since last month despite incoming data and Fed communications potentially bringing taper expectations forward.
• Their July poll didn't ask the same questions, but showed 66% saw tapering ending in Q4 2022 or later and 34% earlier, so more or less the same overall schedule.
• The survey was conducted between Aug 9 and 12, so fully captures the strong July payrolls report last Friday, and Wednesday's slightly soft inflation data to some extent.
• But a September taper announcement (as suggested by MNI Policy Team reporting) still isn't fully expected, suggesting such a move by the Fed would trigger a hawkish reaction.