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Reversal For Equities Takes Shine Off MXN

MEXICO
  • Weaker price action across equity markets following the release of the US ISM data has weighed on the Mexican peso throughout the latter half of Monday’s trading session.
    • USDMXN maintains a softer tone overall and the pair is trading lower following the powerful reversal from 19.2322, the Mar 20 high.
    • The obvious next target is the key support at 17.8981, the Mar 9 low. A breach of this level would pave the way for weakness towards 17.5746, the Aug 25 2017 low. On the other hand, initial firm resistance remains much further out at 18.7976, the Mar 24 high.
  • JPMorgan on Mex inflation: There are two different dynamics at play, which JPM think point to two timelines for inflation: in the short term (the next handful of months), the risk is for faster disinflation; longer term, they believe that demand-driven and cost-push inflation pressures stemming from a policy-driven, consumption growth model will keep core inflation stubbornly high.
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