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Reversal in Hawkish Reaction Across Global Markets Bolsters CE3 FX

CEE FX
CE3 FX had already been showing resilience to the spike higher in the greenback immediately following the US data, but gains in HUF, PLN and CZK have all since gathered momentum as the initial reaction to the data reverses. As we noted above, a moderation in US yields and recovery in major equity indices has bolstered the wider EM FX basket, as the finer details of the payrolls report prove to be less hawkish than first assumed.
  • EURHUF continues to trade below key support at 378.22, the Dec 14 low. A sustained break of this level could expose the late November lows at 376.75. Inflation data on Jan 12 is the next key release.
  • EURPLN has pared its earlier gains on the back of a softer domestic inflation print and is now marginally in the red at typing. The cross has erased the entirety of Tuesday’s uptick – and is flat on the week overall. The NBP meeting is the key risk event in Poland next week.
  • The koruna is the top performer in EMEA today and has now recorded a 1.3% pullback from Tuesday’s high – which was its highest since June 2022.
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