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Richemont (CFRVX; NR/A+) 1Q (to June) Results

CONSUMER CYCLICALS

Firm results particularly after yesterday's warnings from peers. It leaves Burberry brand issues looking more stark (particularly in NA/Europe) and Swatch overexposed to the pain points that Richemont has also shown; China and luxury watches. It means negative read-through to Kering (NR/A-) that is a lighter 35% exposed to Asia (including Japan) remains in the balance.

  • Constant current sales was +1% (c+1.3%). By region most was in-line outside of deeper fall in Asia (34% of group) than expected (-18% vs. -15%) - that was driven by a -27% fall in China.
  • Separately Japan (11% of group) was strong (+59% vs. c+34%) and explains away some of the China weakness (tourism in).
  • Europe +5%, Americas +10% and MEA +8% all firm with former 2 not showing the weakness Burberry did yesterday. Europe helped by tourism, Americas it is saying was domestic strength.
  • Reminder it's main exposure its to Jewellery through brands like Cartier and Van Cleef; that segment grew +4% to €3.7b while watchmakers fell -13% to €0.9b. The fall in the latter might explain Swatch's disappointing earnings and guidance yesterday.
  • Wholesale -5% while Retail was +2% and online +6%. Online makes up 6% of sales and wholesale 25%. Reminder Burberry refused to disclose its online sales exposure last time a analyst asked.
  • Net cash position of €7.3b up from €6.3b last year, 1H results come on 8th of November.

Equity takes here.

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