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Richer After Retail Sales & Private Sector Credit Miss Expectations

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +6.0 & XM +5.5) are 2-3bps richer after today’s domestic data drop. Retail Sales data for March prints softer than expected at -0.4% m/m versus +0.2% est and a revised prior of +0.2%. Private Sector Credit also surprised on the downside printing at +0.3% m/m versus +0.4% est and +0.5% prior.

  • Cash ACGBs are 4-5bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 1bp lower at -17bps.
  • Swap rates are 6-7bps lower, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +2 to +7.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-3bps softer for early 2025 meetings following the data. A cumulative 4bps of easing is priced by year-end from an expected terminal rate of 4.45% (Sep-24). The expected terminal rate was 4.47% before the data.
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