MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURGBP Opens Gap With Recent High
MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – EURGBP Opens Gap With Recent High
- The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bullish and the contract traded to fresh cycle high once again yesterday. The continuation higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures is intact. Attention is on resistance at 5039.84, 61.8% of the May 16 - Jun 14 sell-off. It was pierced last week, a clear break of it would be a positive development and suggest scope for an extension of the bull cycle that started Jun 14.
- GBPUSD remains in a bull-mode condition and this week’s gains reinforce a bullish theme. Today’s move higher has resulted in a print above key short-term resistance at 1.2860, the Jun 12 high and a bull trigger. EURGBP traded lower Wednesday extending the gap with the recent high on Jul 1. Trend signals are bearish and a key resistance at 0.8492 is intact, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average is required to highlight a stronger reversal. AUDUSD bullish conditions remain intact and the pair has traded to a fresh short-term cycle high today. The move higher extends the recent breach of resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high. The clearance of 0.6714, confirmed a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19.
- Gold remains constructive. Recent gains resulted in a print above resistance at $2387.8, the Jun 7 high. This undermines a recent bearish theme and a clear break would be viewed as a bullish development and open the key resistance at $2450.1, the May 20 high. WTI futures have recovered from yesterday’s low and the recent bear leg appears to have been a correction. Recent cycle highs reinforced bullish conditions, signalling scope for a continuation higher near-term.
- The trend condition in Bund futures remains bearish and short-term gains appear to be corrective. The move down between Jun 14 - Jul 3, undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Gilt futures are holding on to the bulk of their recent gains. Despite the latest move higher, the short-term outlook remains bearish. The sell-off from Jun 21, signals scope for a bearish continuation near-term and a resumption of weakness would open 96.25.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 1.0943 High Jan 21
- RES 3: 1.0916 High Jun 04 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.0852 High Jun 12
- RES 1: 1.0845 High Jul 08
- PRICE: 1.0836 @ 05:57 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: 1.0778/10 20-day EMA / Low Jul 2
- SUP 2: 1.0666 Low Jun 26 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.0650 Low May 1
- SUP 4: 1.0601 Low Apr 16 and a key support
EURUSD traded very modestly higher into the close and is holding on to this week’s gains. A bullish theme remains intact. The breach on Jul 3 of the 50-day EMA undermines a recent bearish theme and signals scope for an extension towards 1.0852, the Jun 12 high and the next important resistance. Key support lies at 1.0666, the Jun 26 low. Initial support to watch is at 1.0778, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Pierces Key Short-Term Resistance
- RES 4: 1.2947 1.50 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
- RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.2864 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.2858 @ 06:14 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: 1.2735/2696 20- and 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.2613 Low Jun 27
- SUP 3: 1.2584 Low May 15
- SUP 4: 1.2514 61.8% retracement of the Apr 22 - Jun 12 bull cycle
GBPUSD remains in a bull-mode condition and this week’s gains reinforce a bullish theme. Today’s move higher has resulted in a print above key short-term resistance at 1.2860, the Jun 12 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the bull cycle and set the scene for a climb towards 1.2894, the Mar 8 high and a key medium-term resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.2735, the 20-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 0.8586 76.4% retracement of the Apr 23 - Jun 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8568 High May 20
- RES 2: 0.8491/99 50-day EMA / High Jul 1
- RES 1: 0.8464 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8427 @ 06:37 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: 0.8429 Low Jul 10
- SUP 2: 0.8397 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
- SUP 4: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing
EURGBP traded lower Wednesday extending the gap with the recent high on Jul 1. Trend signals are bearish and a key resistance at 0.8492 is intact, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average is required to highlight a stronger reversal. Initial firm support has been pierced at 0.8431, the Jun 25 low. A clear break of it would open 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of this level resumes the downtrend.
USDJPY TECHS: Heading North
- RES 4: 164.44 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 163.36 2.00 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
- RES 2: 162.21 1.764 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
- RES 1: 161.95 High Jul 3
- PRICE: 161.70 @ 06:50 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: 160.06 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 158.11 Trendline support drawn from Dec 28 low
- SUP 3: 157.93 /155.72 50-day EMA / Low Jun 12
- SUP 4: 154.55 Low Jun 4
USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is trading just below its recent high. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up and this continues to highlight a clear rising trend. The recent breach of 160.17, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend, maintaining the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 162.21, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 160.06.
EURJPY TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 177.27 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 176.82 1.764 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
- RES 2: 176.03 1.618 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
- RES 1: 175.40 1.50 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
- PRICE: 175.29 @ 07:21 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: 173.52 Low Jul 8
- SUP 2: 172.25 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 169.99/167.53 Trendline from the Dec 7 ‘23 low / Low Jun 14
- SUP 4: 167.33 Low May 16
The EURJPY trend structure is unchanged, it remains bullish and the cross continues to appreciate. This week’s leg higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies also highlight a clear rising trend - they remain in a bull-mode set-up. Sights are on 175.40, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at 172.52, the 20-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Trend Extends
- RES 4: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.6839 High Jan 02
- RES 2: 0.6771 High Jan 03
- RES 1: 0.6764 Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.6757 @ 07:57 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: 0.6687 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6647 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6558 Low May 8
AUDUSD bullish conditions remain intact and the pair has traded to a fresh short-term cycle high today. The move higher extends the recent breach of resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high. The clearance of 0.6714, confirmed a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19. Sights are on 0.6771 next, the Jan 3 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Initial firm support is at 0.6647, the 50-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
- RES 2: 1.3755/3792 High Jul 2 / High Jun 11
- RES 1: 1.3669 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3629 @ 08:07 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: 1.3590 Low May 16 and a key support
- SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
- SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4
USDCAD is trading closer to its recent lows and a short-term bear threat remains present. The recent break of the 50-day EMA - currently at 1.3669, reinforces a bearish condition and exposes 1.3590, the May 16 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would highlight an important technical break. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3755, the Jul 2 high. A break of this level would be bullish.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (U4) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 133.21 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 132.80 High Jun 25
- RES 2: 132.24 High Jun 28
- RES 1: 131.55 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 131.23 @ 05:35 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: 130.28/23 76.4% of May 31 - Jun 14 rally / Low Jul 3
- SUP 2: 129.52 Low Jun 10
- SUP 3: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 129.00 Round number support
The trend condition in Bund futures remains bearish and short-term gains appear to be corrective. The move down between Jun 14 - Jul 3, undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Support to watch is 130.28, a Fibonacci retracement. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance is at 132.24, the Jun 28 high. A break would highlight a reversal.
BOBL TECHS: (U4) Trend Set-Up Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 117.160 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 116.920 High Jun 24
- RES 3: 116.690 High Jun 28
- RES 1: 116.175 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 116.010 @ 05:41 BST Jul 10
- SUP 1: 115.530 Low Jul 5
- SUP 2: 115.556 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 14 rally
- SUP 3: 115.180 Low Jun 10
- SUP 4: 115.060 Low May 31 and key support
The trend set-up in Bobl futures is unchanged and the outlook remains bearish. The move down Jul 1 resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and this undermined a recent bearish threat, signalling scope for a pullback towards 115.556 (pierced), a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance to watch is 116.690, the Jun 28 high.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 106.009 2.382 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
- RES 3: 105.975 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 105.895 High Jun 21
- RES 1: 105.567/105.780 20-day EMA / High Jun 28
- PRICE: 105.515 @ 06:05 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: 105.390 Low Jul 5
- SUP 2: 105.375 Low Jun 13
- SUP 3: 105.314 76.4% retracement of the May 24 Jun 14 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 105.175 Low Jun 7
Schatz futures are in consolidation mode. The trend signal is bearish following the recent breach of support around the 20-day EMA, at 105.567. The move down signals scope for a deeper retracement and a continuation lower would open 105.314, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this price point would strengthen a developing bearish threat. Initial firm resistance to watch is 105.780, the Jun 28 high. A break would be bullish.
GILT TECHS: (U4) Watching Resistance
- RES 4: 100.00 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
- RES 2: 98.92/99.25 High Jun 25 / 1.236 proj May 29-Jun 4-10 swing
- RES 1: 98.24/38 High Jun 28 / Jul 11
- PRICE: 97.97 @ Close Jul 10
- SUP 1: 97.32/96.57 Low Jul 4 / 1
- SUP 2: 96.25 76.4% retracement of the May 29 - Jun 21 bull run
- SUP 3: 96.12 Low Jun 10
- SUP 4: 95.33 Low May 29 and a key support
Gilt futures are holding on to the bulk of their recent gains. Despite the latest move higher, the short-term outlook remains bearish. The sell-off from Jun 21, signals scope for a bearish continuation near-term and a resumption of weakness would open 96.25, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 98.24, the Jun 28 high. It has been pierced, a clear of it would be seen as a bullish development.
BTP TECHS: (U4) Bullish Extension
- RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 117.62 High Jun 5 and key resistance
- RES 1: 117.28 High Jul 11
- PRICE: 117.08 @ Close Jul 10
- SUP 1: 116.28 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 114.72/35 Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 11 and key support
- SUP 3: 114.02 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 113.60 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
BTP futures have recovered from 114.72, the Jul 2 low. Yesterday’s move higher resulted in a print above resistance at 117.09, the Jun 21 high. This undermines a recent bearish theme and exposes a firmer resistance at 117.62, Jun 5 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish case and open 118.58, May 16 high and a key resistance. Initial support lies at 116.28, 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would highlight a potential reversal.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 5151.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 5132.00 High Jun 6
- RES 2: 5082.32 76.4% retracement of the May 16 - Jun 14 sell-off
- RES 1: 5067.00 High Jul 8
- PRICE: 5009.00 @ 06:29 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: 4903.00/4860.00 Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 4846.00 Low Apr 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 4800.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 4785.40 2.236 proj of the May 16 - Jun 4 - 6 price swing
A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures is intact. Attention is on resistance at 5039.84, 61.8% of the May 16 - Jun 14 sell-off. It was pierced last week, a clear break of it would be a positive development and suggest scope for an extension of the bull cycle that started Jun 14. This would open 5082.32, the 76.4% retracement. A stronger reversal would instead expose 4846.00, the Apr 19 low and a key support.
E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Bullish Trend Sequence Extends
- RES 4: 5741.34 3.382 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: 5713.31 3.236 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 2: 5700.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5690.50 High Jul 10
- PRICE: 5685.00 @ 07:21 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: 5551.21/5445.59 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support
- SUP 3: 5213.25 Low May 6
- SUP 4: 5155.75 Low May 3
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bullish and the contract traded to fresh cycle high once again yesterday. The continuation higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a clear bull-mode set-up too and this continues to highlight positive market sentiment. Sights are on the 5700.00 handle next. Support is at 5551.21, the 20-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (U4) Bullish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: $91.99 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 3: $90.23 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 2: $89.32 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $87.95 - High Jul 5
- PRICE: $85.80 @ 06:59 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: $83.72 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $79.05/76.66 - Low Jun 7 / 4
- SUP 3: $75.31 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 4: $73.37 - Low Dec 13 and a key support
The trend condition in Brent futures remains bullish and the latest move down appears to have been a correction. Recent gains highlight an extension of the current bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This signals scope for a climb towards $89.32, the Apr 12 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level would be seen as an important medium-term bullish development. Initial firm support to watch is $83.77, the 50-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (Q4) Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: $90.78 - High Oct 20 2023 (cont)
- RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 2: $85.27 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $84.52 - High Jul 5
- PRICE: $82.76 @ 07:14 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: $79.80 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $74.94/72.44 - Low Jun 10 / 4
- SUP 3: $71.05 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 4: $69.22 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support
WTI futures have recovered from yesterday’s low and the recent bear leg appears to have been a correction. Recent cycle highs reinforced bullish conditions, signalling scope for a continuation higher near-term. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a rising trend. Sights are on $85.27, the Apr 12 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch is $79.80, the 50-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Bullish Short-Term Set-Up
- RES 4: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 3: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 2: $2450.1 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $2393.0 - High Jul 5
- PRICE: $2379.7 @ 07:40 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: $2346.4/2329.5 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 7
- SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
- SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
- SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
Gold remains constructive. Recent gains resulted in a print above resistance at $2387.8, the Jun 7 high. This undermines a recent bearish theme and a clear break would be viewed as a bullish development and open the key resistance at $2450.1, the May 20 high. Initial support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 2329.5. A clear break of this average would instead confirm a resumption of the reversal from May 20 and expose $2277.4, May 3 low.
SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact For Now
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
- RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger
- PRICE: $30.945 @ 08:11 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: $28.573- Low Jun 26 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $27.971 - Low May 13
- SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
- SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
Silver has recovered from its recent lows and the metal continues to trade closer to last week’s high. The break of $30.853, the Jun 21 high, is a bullish development and undermines a recent bearish theme. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of the key resistance and bull trigger at $32.518, the May 20 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger, lies at $28.573, the Jun 26 low.