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AUSSIE BONDS: Richer & At Bests On A Data-Light Session

AUSSIE BONDS
BulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM +5.0 & XM +5.0) are richer and at Sydney session highs on a data/newsflow-light session. 

  • Australia's November CPI report, due Jan. 6, will likely show inflation falling to 2.0% year on year from 2.1% in October. In month-on-month terms, prices are likely to edge up, supported by a modest lift in fuel prices and higher food costs. The slowdown in underlying inflation - which paused in October - is likely to resume in November, with the trimmed-mean measure potentially slipping back into the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2%-3% target band for the first time since December 2021. The November CPI data will be superseded by the full 4Q CPI report, which will feed into the next forecast update due at the RBA's February meeting. (per BBG)
  • Cash US tsys are slightly richer in today’s Asia-Pac session.
  • Cash ACGBs are 5bps richer as trading resumed after the extended Christmas holiday with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -19bps.
  • Swap rates are 6bps lower.
  • The bills strip is stronger, with pricing +2 to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-3bps softer. A 25bps rate cut is more than fully priced by April (132%). A February cut is a 62% chance according to pricing. 
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ACGBs (YM +5.0 & XM +5.0) are richer and at Sydney session highs on a data/newsflow-light session. 

  • Australia's November CPI report, due Jan. 6, will likely show inflation falling to 2.0% year on year from 2.1% in October. In month-on-month terms, prices are likely to edge up, supported by a modest lift in fuel prices and higher food costs. The slowdown in underlying inflation - which paused in October - is likely to resume in November, with the trimmed-mean measure potentially slipping back into the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2%-3% target band for the first time since December 2021. The November CPI data will be superseded by the full 4Q CPI report, which will feed into the next forecast update due at the RBA's February meeting. (per BBG)
  • Cash US tsys are slightly richer in today’s Asia-Pac session.
  • Cash ACGBs are 5bps richer as trading resumed after the extended Christmas holiday with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -19bps.
  • Swap rates are 6bps lower.
  • The bills strip is stronger, with pricing +2 to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-3bps softer. A 25bps rate cut is more than fully priced by April (132%). A February cut is a 62% chance according to pricing.