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Richer As U.S. Tsys Await PCE Data

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs are trading richer (YM +2.0 & XM +3.5) following a modestly stronger close in the U.S. Tsy 10-year in NY trade, as investors awaited the release of PCE data later today. Meanwhile, the 2-year U.S. Tsy yield remained slightly weaker after the bell, due to the continued scaling back of year-end easing expectations. At the close, the U.S. STIR had priced 57bp easing by year-end, compared to 95bp at the end of last week.

  • Cash ACGBs opened 3-4bp richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential -23bp.
  • Swaps opened 2bp stronger with EFPs slightly wider.
  • Bills strip is +1 to +4 with reds leading.
  • With the market focused on the RBA decision next week, RBA-dated OIS has opened an 16% chance of a 25bp hike priced. May meeting pricing is unchanged with cumulative tightening over April and May meetings at 10bp, its highest level since 15 March yesterday.
  • The local calendar is light today with Private Sector Credit (Feb) as the highlight.
  • The global calendar heats up today with the release of Euro Area CPI (Mar) and U.S. PCE deflator (Feb). Core measures will be the focus.
  • The AOFM is scheduled to sell A$500mn of the 0.25% 21 November 2025 bond.
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