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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessRicher, AU-US10Y Narrower, MYEFO Due
In futures roll-impacted dealings, ACGBs (YM +1.8 & XM +4.6) are slightly stronger after US tsys finished mainly richer ahead of today’s FOMC decision at 1300ET and Fed Chair Powell's presser at 1430ET. An in-line November CPI print did nothing to discourage expectations for a less-than-hawkish outcome from the Fed.
- The Fed will likely lower its median "dot plot" estimate for policy interest rates at the end of 2024 to around 4.9%, former officials and staffers told MNI, as expectations build for the first rate cut to come as early as the year's first half.
- "My expectation is that the median will probably show two 25-basis-point cuts next year," said ex-Boston Fed chief Eric Rosengren, whose forecast is for two to three cuts starting as early as the second quarter.
- Cash ACGBs are 2-4bps lower, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 4bps tighter at +8bps.
- Swap rates are 1-3bps lower, with EFPs slightly wider.
- The bills strip is flat to +2 across contracts.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is +/-1bp across meetings.
- Late this morning, the local calendar sees the government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) published, with Treasurer Chalmers giving a press conference. This afternoon CBA’s household spending insights print.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.