Free Trial

Richer But Off Best Levels, CPI & Retail Sales Data Later In The Week

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +5.0 & XM +9.0) are higher but off Sydney session highs. ACGBs opened stronger today following on from US tsys’ bull-flattening on Friday. Without domestic catalysts, the local market has extended those gains in sympathy with US tsy dealings in today’s Asia-Pac session. Cash US tsys are ~2bps richer across benchmarks.

  • Cash ACGBs are 6-9bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -13bps.
  • Swap rates are 4-7bps lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +6.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 4bps softer across meetings. A cumulative 37bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • The local calendar is empty tomorrow, with January CPI (Wed) and Retail Sales (Thu) as the week's highlights.
  • January CPI is expected to increase moderately to 3.6% y/y from 3.4% in December with forecasts between 3.4% and 4%. As it is the first month of the quarter it will contain limited updated information on services and will mainly cover goods prices.
  • Retail Sales for January is expected to rise 1.6% m/m after falling 2.7%. The series has been volatile due to changes in the timing of seasonal discounts and forecasts for January range from +0.3% to +2.5%.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.