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Richer, Cautious Dealing, Retail Sales Tomorrow, FOMC Policy Decision On Wednesday

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +3.5) are holding stronger but in the middle of today’s Sydney session ranges. Local market participants have been cautious with no domestic data released today and no cash US tsy trading due to a public holiday in Japan. This caution may stem from lingering concerns following last week's unexpectedly high Q1 CPI figures.

  • Cash ACGBs are 4bps richer.
  • Swap rates are 4-5bps lower.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly softer across meetings. A cumulative 4bps of easing is priced by year-end from an expected terminal rate of 4.46% (Sep-24).
  • (AFR) The Reserve Bank of Australia board will almost certainly leave the policy rate unchanged when it meets next week. But given the higher-than-anticipated price pressures evident in the March quarter consumer price index and evidence of ongoing labour market resilience, do not expect Governor Michele Bullock to abandon her circumspection regarding the next move in the policy rate. (See link)
  • The local calendar will see Private Sector Credit and Retail Sales data tomorrow.
  • On Wednesday, the AOFM plans to sell A$800mn of 3.75% the May-34 bond.
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