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Richer, Narrow Ranges, Typical Pre-Payrolls Friday

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +7.0 & XM +6.5) are richer but off Sydney session highs in a typical data-light/pre-US-payrolls Friday. Ranges have been relatively narrow but come after solid gains following Wednesday’s lower-than-expected Q2 core CPI data. ACGB benchmarks are 21-25bps richer than pre-CPI levels.

  • Today’s solid performance by ACGBs has been assisted by cash US tsys, which are 2-3bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session, after yesterday’s strong gains following weaker-than-expected ISM Mfg and initial jobless claims.
  • Today’s ACGB May-34 auction went smoothly but with less demand present. The cover ratio printed lower at 2.5333x versus 3.3143x seen at the July auction. The bid seemed to have been impacted by an outright yield that was 35bps lower than the early July auction level, 95bps lower than the November high, and currently near the lowest level of the past 12 months.
  • Cash ACGBs are 6-7bps with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +8bps.
  • Swap rates are 8-9bps lower, with EFPs tighter.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +1 to +11.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 12bps softer across meetings, with 2025 leading. A cumulative 21bps of easing is priced by year-end.
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