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Richer, Off Bests, Underperforms US Tsys

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs are holding firmer (YM +3.0 & XM +3.5) but off session bests as US tsys give up early Asia-Pac trade strength. With the local calendar light, local participants were on headline watch ahead of US PPI data later today. China’s inflation misses failed to provide a lasting positive impact on the local market. The release of FOI documents that revealed the RBA had considered alternative scenarios with a peak cash rate of 4.8% also didn’t spark a notable market reaction.

  • Cash ACGBs are 4bp richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential +4bp at -2bp.
  • Swap rates are 5bp lower with EFPs slightly tighter.
  • The bills strip twist flattens with pricing -2 to +9.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 1bp firmer out to November, but 2-5bp softer for early ’24 meetings. Terminal rate expectations are at 3.91% (August).
  • There is no local data slated for tomorrow.
  • The global calendar sees the BoE Rate Decision, with a 25bp hike expected, ahead of April’s US PPI data.
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