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Richer On Thursday

US TSYS

TYU3 deals at 113-16, +0-01+, in line with late NY levels

  • Cash tsys finished 4-8bps richer across the major benchmarks, the belly lead the bid.
  • Tsys looked through a 25bp hike from the ECB, rallying after Initial Jobless Claims printed above expectations on Thursday. This was the highest level for unemployment benefit claims since late 2021.
  • FOMC Dated OIS price a ~66% chance of a July rate hike, a terminal rate of ~5.30% is seen in August with 10bps of cuts priced for 2023.
  • Technically, despite todays rally, TY remains in a downtrend. Support comes in at 112-00 handle and Mar 10 low, with 110-27+ key support. Resistance is at 114-00 Tuesdays high.
  • The latest monetary policy decision from the BOJ headlines in Asia today. Further out we have UofMich Consumer Sentiment, as well as Fedspeak from St Louis Fed President Bullard, Gov Waller and Richmond Fed President Barkin.

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