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Richer With US Tsys Ahead Of Retail Sales

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +3.0 & XM +3.0) are richer with US tsys as yields finished 1-5bps lower across benchmarks. The US 10-year yield has declined 12bps from its YTD high of 4.74%, set on Thursday, following lower-than-expected Weekly Claims and hotter-than-expected Q1 PCE Deflator data.

  • According to MNI’s technical team, the trend outlook for US tsy 10-year futures (TYM4) is unchanged and the direction is down. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low on Thursday. Initial resistance is 108-15+ (20-day EMA), while to the downside, initial support is at 107-04 (Apr 24 low). TYM4 has opened today’s Asia-Pac session unchanged at 107-30+.
  • The key market movement on Monday was the yen weakness, followed by signs of official intervention. With Japan on holiday, illiquid trading saw the USD/JPY rise to 160 for the first time since 1990. It is currently dealing at 156.
  • Cash ACGBs are 3bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -16bps.
  • Swap rates are 3bps lower.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +1 to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 3-4bps softer for late 2024/early 2025 meetings. A cumulative 5bps of easing is priced by year-end from an expected terminal rate of 4.47% (Sep-24).
  • Today, the local calendar will see Private Sector Credit and Retail Sales data.
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