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Richmond Fed Mfg Misses As Regional Surveys At Odds With PMI

US DATA
  • The Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell more than expected in January, from +1 to -11 (cons -5), surpassing October’s -10 for a new low since the depths of the pandemic.
  • The average of the three regional Fed surveys available for January shows the same trend, falling from -8 to -17.6, with two of the three falling on the month and led by Empire down from -11 to -33 (other two being Philly & Richmond).
  • The combination is at odds with today’s manufacturing PMI surprisingly nudging up from 46.2 to 46.8, but in both cases they continue to imply downside risk to the ISM manufacturing survey due to be released on Feb 1 (FOMC decision day).
  • Reduced inflationary pressures: “January survey results indicated continued easing of supply chain constraints.[...] The average growth rates of both prices paid and prices received decreased in January. Expectations for both price growth measures over the next 12 months also decreased to a level much lower than last year.”


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