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Richmond Fed Survey Lends Support to Prior Empire Miss

US DATA
  • Whilst only a relatively small miss, the decline in the Richmond Fed manufacturing index from 0 to -8 in Aug (BBG cons. -4) lends support to prior weakness in the Empire State survey over the subsequent bounce in the Philly Fed index, even if the decline only takes it back close to the -9 seen in May-June.
  • The regional Fed surveys continue to point to sizeable downside compared to both the July ISM and earlier PMI manufacturing surveys, which for now have been notably more resilient ever since the regional surveys slumped in May [see chart].
  • The weaker than expected release hit concurrently with a sharp decline in new home sales, which building on prior weakness in the service-led hit from S&P Global PMI pushes a sizeable bid in Treasuries with 2YY -6.5bps and 10YY -2.0bps, whilst the US dollar reverse the week to date’s gains, with BBDXY sliding -0.6%.

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