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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
ITALY DATA
Italian unemployment surprised consensus to the upside in October, printing at 7.8% (vs 7.4% cons; an upwardly revised 7.6% prior) in this morning's report. Various surveys released yesterday also point to softening employment prospects in the months ahead.
- The increase in unemployment in October was driven by a 1.5pp rise in youth (15-24 year old) unemployment to 24.7% (vs 23.2% prior) - largely due to newly active persons not being able to find employment. In October, there were 30k fewer inactive 15-24 year olds, while unemployment rose by 31k and employment by just 3k.
- Nationally, there were 69k fewer inactive persons, while employment and unemployment saw increases of 27k and 45k respectively.
- Employment growth momentum, measured as the 3M/3M SAAR of employed persons picked up slightly to 1.9% 3M/3M (vs 1.2% in September). This rate had been fairly steady between 1.8%-2.5% through 2023 until September's low print.
- However, survey data released by ISTAT and the EC suggest softening employment prospects in the next 3 months. At a sector level per the EC's survey, expected employment in industry fell the most (-1.6 points to 3.3) while retail trade saw a 1.4 point rise to 13.6. Additionally, the latest Services PMI report in October noted "only the third monthly reduction in Italian service sector employment in the past two-and-a-half years".
- Overall, today's rise in unemployment may see persistence in the coming months, as newly active workers struggle to find employment amid a softening backdrop.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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