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Rise In Unemployment As The Newly Active Fail To Find Work


Italian unemployment surprised consensus to the upside in October, printing at 7.8% (vs 7.4% cons; an upwardly revised 7.6% prior) in this morning's report. Various surveys released yesterday also point to softening employment prospects in the months ahead.

  • The increase in unemployment in October was driven by a 1.5pp rise in youth (15-24 year old) unemployment to 24.7% (vs 23.2% prior) - largely due to newly active persons not being able to find employment. In October, there were 30k fewer inactive 15-24 year olds, while unemployment rose by 31k and employment by just 3k.
  • Nationally, there were 69k fewer inactive persons, while employment and unemployment saw increases of 27k and 45k respectively.
  • Employment growth momentum, measured as the 3M/3M SAAR of employed persons picked up slightly to 1.9% 3M/3M (vs 1.2% in September). This rate had been fairly steady between 1.8%-2.5% through 2023 until September's low print.
  • However, survey data released by ISTAT and the EC suggest softening employment prospects in the next 3 months. At a sector level per the EC's survey, expected employment in industry fell the most (-1.6 points to 3.3) while retail trade saw a 1.4 point rise to 13.6. Additionally, the latest Services PMI report in October noted "only the third monthly reduction in Italian service sector employment in the past two-and-a-half years".
  • Overall, today's rise in unemployment may see persistence in the coming months, as newly active workers struggle to find employment amid a softening backdrop.

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