Rising EU ETS Volumes to Possibly Keep Prices Range Bound

Above normal EU ETS auction volumes in August could cap EU ETS prices and push them below €70/t CO2e over the next few weeks, market participants said, cited by Montel.

• EEX will auction 53.9m EUAs next month, down from 58.4m in July, the exchange’s auction calendar showed.
• The schedule changes show effort in “avoiding market shock” amid rising demand because of new compliance deadlines – set for 30 September from 30 April, EU market analysis at ClearBlue Markets Egis Breshani said.
• But almost 1/3 of participants have submitted their emissions in April, leading to few participants to purchase ETS credits in August-September, Breshani added.
• Additionally “we assume that the most sophisticated trading desks from compliance entities…have a strategy and won’t leave the purchasing only at the end of the cycle,” Breshani said.
• EUA prices over last few weeks have also seemed “fair value”, Energy Aspects analyst Ben Lee said.
• EUA DEC 24 up 0.6% at 69.07 EUR/MT