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Rising Geopolitical Tensions On Two Continents Drive Gas Higher

LNG

Natural gas prices continued to trend higher on Friday with Europe up 4.8% to EUR 30.79 to be up 12.6% this month as the US warned that an Iranian retaliation for the attack on its Syrian embassy was imminent. However, the upward trend has been driven predominantly by Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian gas storage facilities, which supply Europe. Iran’s first attack on Israel from its own territory raises geopolitical risks but is unlikely to disrupt gas markets but the seizure of more ships in the Strait of Hormuz would make them nervous.

  • Iran seized an Israeli ship in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend using troops from a helicopter. Given Qatar’s location just on the other side of the Strait, these events may also impact natural gas prices. Qatar is one of the largest global LNG exporters.
  • Low flows into the US’ Freeport export terminal, which also sends LNG to Europe, is also making European markets nervous.
  • US natural gas prices rose 0.6% on Friday to be up moderately this month. They continue to be subdued given low demand and high inventories.
  • Asian prices are up 2.8% to be 11.5% higher in April as the Russian attack on Ukrainian gas facilities made markets nervous as Asia competes with Europe for global supplies.
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