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Rising Inflation Risk Keeps Dividing The MPC Board

POLAND
  • The 7D SMA of daily new Covid cases continue fell to 2,700, down from 4,400 the week before (and from 28,900 on April 1st). Poland PM Morawiecki said that the country will reopen cinemas and theatres on Friday, May 21, eight days earlier than originally planned.
  • In an interview yesterday, NBP policymakers Grazyna Ancyparowicz revealed that it was too early to talk about rate hikes and that the MPC should wait until the central bank's July projections to decide whether it is time to start a tightening cycle.
  • Even though she confirmed that the spike in inflation should be temporary, her tone seems to have become slightly more hawkish compare to three weeks ago when Ancyparowicz mentioned that she was seeing 'stable rates' until the end of her MPC term, which is in February 2022.
  • The rise in disagreements between NBP policymakers over the trajectory of ST rates has led to strong demand for the Polish Zloty.
  • Next economic data to watch are Average Gross Wages and Employment growth on May 20.
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