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Rising Petrol Prices May Produce Economic Headwinds

AUSTRALIA

Global Brent crude is up over 11% this year and around 4.5% just in March and with refined product prices up too from geopolitical tensions and increased demand, it is unsurprising that fuel prices have risen in Australia too. Australian Institute of Petroleum national unleaded petrol prices fell 1.1% w/w last week to 200.5c/L after they rose 1% w/w to 202.7c/L the previous week, the highest since October 2023. The average for March is up around 4c/L or 2.1% m/m after February rose about 11c or 6% m/m. Westpac March consumer confidence, March MI inflation expectations and February headline CPI are all released this week. While there are many factors that impact these variables, the over 8% increase in petrol prices since January and their rise above 200c/L again may weigh on sentiment and put upward pressure on inflation data.


Australia CPI y/y% vs Brent crude US$

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS/Refinitiv

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