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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
- In the past few months, we have seen that the rise in uncertainty combined with the strong deceleration in Chinese economic activity have been weighing on the economic outlook in the DM economies.
- With the Fed preparing for tapering, a deceleration in liquidity could lead to a sustain period of risk-off environment, with investors chasing classic 'safe' assets such as the USD or US Treasuries.
- We have seen that there has been sharp upside moves on the short end of the curve in the EM markets, with central banks hiking rates aggressively to curb inflationary pressures.
- With some investors speculating that the Fed may accelerate its tapering in order to start hiking rates in H2 2022, ST rates could also start to rise in the US in the coming months.
- This chart shows that the 2-year change in US 2Y bond yield has strongly led the business cycle in the past few decades (by 2 years).
- Therefore, rising rates in the short end of the curve could accelerate the economic slowdown in the coming months.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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