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- In the past 18 months, we have seen that Czech financials stocks have been significantly more sensitive to ST bond yields than the traditional 'yield curve' .
- While the rising uncertainty over a range of risk factors (Delta variant, falling Chinese liquidity…) has been pushing the 2Y10Y yield curve lower, the recent 'hawkish' policymakers' tone keep sending Czech short term bond yields higher.
- A 50bps hike at the September 30 meeting seems very likely following the positive surprise in inflation.
- Czech CPI inflation came in higher than expected in August and rose to 4.1% YoY (vs. 3.6% exp.), up from 3.4% from the previous month.
- MSCI Czech financials index broke its 1,171 resistance this week to trade at a its highest level since April 2019. Next level to watch on the topside stands at 1,200.