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Timeline of key events (Times GMT)


Resumes Its Downtrend


Bears Pause For Breath


Trend Needle Still Points South


(Z1) Bearish Risk Remains Present

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  • Risk appetite is seen waning headed into the NY crossover, with equity futures rolling off the overnight (and record) highs as the USD and JPY make headway and erase a small part of the recent weakness. The softer risk outlook has worked against commodity-tied and growth-proxy currencies, putting the likes of NOK, CAD and NZD among the session's poorest performers.
  • Markets were already trading modestly shakily across early Europe, but the selling pressure accelerated as the US Democrats unveiled the finer details of a Billionaire tax, which would see those with billionaire status taxed 23.8% annually based on asset price gains.
  • A solid underlying inflation report from Australia (trimmed mean and weighted mean numbers came in well ahead of expectations) prompted a sharp re-pricing of the front-end of the Aussie curve, but the read through to the AUD has been more mixed as the risk-off theme pervades. AUD/USD continues to hold below key resistance at the 0.7560 200-dma,
  • Focus turns to US prelim durable goods data, seen declining at a pace of 1.1% on the month, shortly followed by the Bank of Canada rate decision at which the board are seen keeping rates unchanged, but slowing the rate of asset purchases as the Bank continues to wean the economy off pandemic-stance policy.