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Risk Aversion Dominates, Overshadows Hawkish RBNZ Bets

FOREX

NZD blipped higher in early Asia-Pac hours after Westpac brought forward their forecast of the first OCR hike to November this year from August 2022, a day after ASB and BNZ said they expect the tightening cycle to begin in November. The implied odds of a hike by the November meeting ticked higher to ~87% at typing from ~80% yesterday (per BBG WIRP tool). That being said, the kiwi has given away its modest gains, as Tuesday's risk aversion has seemingly lingered on.

  • JPY is currently the best performer in G10 FX space, leaving AUD to bring up the rear in mildly risk-off trade. AUD/JPY has shed around 15 pips, extending losses to a fresh two-week low.
  • FOMC Jun MonPol meeting minutes, German & Norwegian industrial output data, Italian retail sales and comments from Fed's Bostic & Riksbank's Ohlsson are on the radar today.
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