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Crude Eases Back After $3 Rally Yesterday

WTI TECHS

(X2) Corrective Bounce

BUNDS

Focus remains on UK markets

GOLD TECHS

Gains Highlight A Pause In The Downtrend

SOUTH AFRICA

Lower SARB Inflation Target Looks Increasingly Likely

EQUITY TECHS

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

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Risk Gains When Hawks Cry

US TSYS

Tsys trade mixed after the bell, curves steeper w/ bonds extending lows (30YY hit 3.0777% high). Post FOMC relief rally for short end rates as forward guidance does not appear to green-light more 75bp (or greater) hike for Sep. Equities surged: SPX 4042.50 high but trimming gains a little on earning miss from Meta ($2.46 vs. $2.541 est.).

  • First-half data reacts: Tsy futures trimmed pre-data gains, anticipating 2Q GDP up revision up after better than expected Durable Goods new orders +1.9% vs. -0.4% est, smaller than expected trade deficit -$98.18B vs. -$103.0B est.
  • Rates see-sawed higher into/extended session highs after large miss on pending home sales and the worst M/M figure since April 2020. From the NAR: "As escalating mortgage rates and housing prices impacted potential buyers, pending sales fell in all four major regions in June 2022, with the West experiencing the largest monthly decline." (The West region M/M figure was -15.9%).
  • Stocks and short end rates bounced after Chairman Powell comments:
    "as the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it'll become appropriate to slow the pace of increases while we assess how cumulative policy adjustments are affecting the economy and inflation."
  • Currently the 2-Yr yield is down 7.7bps at 2.9756%, 5-Yr is down 7.3bps at 2.831%, 10-Yr is down 2.9bps at 2.7776%, and 30-Yr is up 3.1bps at 3.0579%.
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Tsys trade mixed after the bell, curves steeper w/ bonds extending lows (30YY hit 3.0777% high). Post FOMC relief rally for short end rates as forward guidance does not appear to green-light more 75bp (or greater) hike for Sep. Equities surged: SPX 4042.50 high but trimming gains a little on earning miss from Meta ($2.46 vs. $2.541 est.).

  • First-half data reacts: Tsy futures trimmed pre-data gains, anticipating 2Q GDP up revision up after better than expected Durable Goods new orders +1.9% vs. -0.4% est, smaller than expected trade deficit -$98.18B vs. -$103.0B est.
  • Rates see-sawed higher into/extended session highs after large miss on pending home sales and the worst M/M figure since April 2020. From the NAR: "As escalating mortgage rates and housing prices impacted potential buyers, pending sales fell in all four major regions in June 2022, with the West experiencing the largest monthly decline." (The West region M/M figure was -15.9%).
  • Stocks and short end rates bounced after Chairman Powell comments:
    "as the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it'll become appropriate to slow the pace of increases while we assess how cumulative policy adjustments are affecting the economy and inflation."
  • Currently the 2-Yr yield is down 7.7bps at 2.9756%, 5-Yr is down 7.3bps at 2.831%, 10-Yr is down 2.9bps at 2.7776%, and 30-Yr is up 3.1bps at 3.0579%.