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Risk-Off Weighs on EM FX; NBP Rate Decision in Focus

CROSS ASSET
  • The risk-off market sentiment has weighed on global markets. Despite recovering from overnight lows, the Dollar Index has inched higher at the start of the European session, though the greenback remains in the red against the likes of JPY and AUD. Antipodeans perform well in G10 after Australia's trade surplus in May was stronger than expected though both AUDUSD and NZDUSD have eased off intraday highs.
  • Equity benchmarks fell across Asia and Europe, while yields on Tsys have continued to firm following a marginally more hawkish than expected FOMC minutes release yesterday. In the UK, yields on 10-year government bonds climbed to the highest since the budget crisis last October, with a BoE base rate of 6.5% now fully priced in by March.
  • In EM, the souring market mood sees most currencies in the red against both EUR and USD. EURHUF strengthened to its highest since March after poor industrial production and retail sales data point to a continued recession for Hungary, with the economy likely to see little to no economic growth this year. The key risk event is the NBP rate decision. Rates are expected unchanged for the tenth consecutive time, but the focus is on any clues on whether the easing cycle could start this year.
  • Later today, attention turns to ADP employment data, ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. The US calendar also sees Trade Balance, ISM Non-Mfg, S&P Global Services PMI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and JOLTS data.
EM BulletHomepageCommoditiesEquitiesEmerging Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
EM BulletHomepageCommoditiesEquitiesEmerging Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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