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Risk-On Ahead July Employment Report

US TSYS SUMMARY
Tsys trading weaker after the bell, just off midday lows on modest risk-on tone with equities firmer (ESU1 +16.0). Generally sedate summer trade persisted while traders turn focus on Fed Gov Waller virtual event on digital currency, MN Fed Pres Kashkari at 1600ET, and Fri's headline July employment data (+870k est vs. +850k prior).
  • Futures had pared gains ahead weekly claims, drew two-way flurry on light volume on more-or-less in-line read (385k vs. 383k est). Futures bounce off early session low with Tsys holding mixed briefly. Support for bonds evaporated soon after, intermediates lead the sell-off into midday.
  • Fed Gov Waller discussed Central Bank digital currency conf before going off script during Q&A -- touched on inflation, Fri's employment data:
    • SAYS HIS OUTLOOK FOR U.S. ECONOMY IS VERY OPTIMISTIC, Bbg
    • EXPECTS JULY EMPLOY REPORT WILL SHOW VERY HIGH JOBS, Bbg
    • INFLATION IS AN UPSIDE RISK, Bbg

Short preview of NFP estimates breakdown on Bbg:

  • Median est of +870k with 64 economists responding
  • Range of +350k low to +1.2M high
  • 13 economists estimate over +1M
The 2-Yr yield is up 2bps at 0.2%, 5-Yr is up 4.3bps at 0.7193%, 10-Yr is up 3.5bps at 1.2168%, and 30-Yr is up 2.4bps at 1.8631%.
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