Free Trial

Risk-on and Lower Unemployment vs Exp Aid NOK Outperformance


NOK sits at the top of the G10, owing to the supportive risk backdrop and a lower than expected unemployment claims rate for November. However, neither EURNOK nor USDNOK have fully reversed gains made yesterday.

  • The unemployment claims rate was steady vs October at 1.8%, while analysts had expected an uptick to 1.9%. This leaves unemployment just below the Norges Bank's September MPR forecast.
  • The Q4 Regional Network Survey (for which growth data has already been released) will provide further insight into the prospects for the Norwegian labour market, and will likely be an important input into the Norges Bank's December decision.
  • However, November inflation data released on Dec 11 will be the main factor in deciding whether the NB deliver a final rate hike as expected, or lean on their softened November guidance and hold rates.
  • EURNOK lies between the 100-day and 20-day EMAs at typing, with a break of 11.6271 (Nov 21 low) needed to spur further downside momentum.

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.