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Risk-On AS Mkt Takes Adaptive Fed Seriously?

US TSYS

FI markets traded weaker after the bell -- 30Y Bond around upper half of the week's range but well off Thursday's highs. Little react to morning data (import prices lower than exp at +0.0%; U/Mich sentiment 59.1 vs 64 est, "lowest reading since 2013").

  • Tsy 30Y Bond futures holding to narrow channel on the way down (30YY taps 3.0959 high vs. 2.9531% early Thu), curves bear steepening: 2s10s +5.017 at 33.449, 5s10s +2.367 at 4.881.
  • Rates under pressure w/ focus back on Fed policy after Fed Chair Powell said he's prepared to consider larger than 50bp hikes in Marketplace interview late Thu (after downplaying 75bp moves at his press conference last week), as the committee adapts to "incoming data and the evolving outlook".
  • Not that the correlation is a factor these days, but Equities did have a nice rebound on the day, SPX emini futures +99.0 at 4026.25.
  • Commodities: WTI Crude Oil (front-month) holding strong +4.05 at $110.18; Gold weaker at $1807.95 -13.77.
  • Next Monday Data Calendar:
    • Empire Manufacturing (24.6, 15) at 0830ET
    • NY Fed Williams moderated discussion, no text at 0855ET
    • US Tsy $45B 13W, $42B 26W bill auctions at 1130ET
    • Net Long-term TIC Flows ($141.7B, --) Net TIC Flows ($162.6B, --) at 1600ET

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