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Risk-On Sentiment Dominates

CANADA
  • FI: GoCs bear steepen but have increasingly lagged the rise in Tsy yields. It’s seen a further trimming in Can-US yield differentials but they remain at a healthy +6bps (2Y) and +3bps (10Y) having only recently turned positive.
  • Higher yields have tightened domestic financial conditions materially but lenders hadn’t started to make additional tightening of lending conditions in the BoC’s Q1 Senior Loan Office survey, something that could help slow the pace of house price growth.
  • FX: Broader risk-on sentiment dominates FX moves today, with CAD, AUD and NOK all moving in unison as oil also firms.
  • USDCAD sits -0.9% at 1.2934 which could see it test support at 1.2914 (May 2 high) on a continuation of risk-on sentiment, but equally technicals suggest a bullish outlook for the pair which could be resumed if risk sentiment sours following the weekend.

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