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Risk-On Sentiment Drives USD/HUF Lower Again Thursday

HUNGARY
Global risk-on sentiment has driven USDHUF lower again Thursday, with the bid in HUF and other major EM currencies against the dollar being supported by the continued move higher in US and European equity indices. The pair last deals 0.33% lower and is approaching 14-month lows at 335.62 – the June 22 low. This week’s move– which was buoyed by yesterday’s soft US CPI data – puts the pair a notable 6% off last week’s highs.
  • EURHUF has seen a more muted move and sits 0.05% higher on the day following four consecutive closes lower, despite strong performance of the single currency supporting HUF’s CE3 peers. Overall, HUF lags the majority of major EM currencies. Given the outsized market reaction to CPI yesterday, PPI comes into focus ahead as markets look for similar clues of slowing inflation pressures. June PPI is expected to slow to 0.4% on a Y/Y basis, and down to 2.6% ex-food and energy.
  • Hungary’s local bonds trade richer with yields roughly ~10bps lower across the curve, extending the cyclical move lower from July 7 highs.
  • HUF price action is likely to be a function of the global picture going forward. The domestic calendar is empty until the NBH rate decision on July 25 while the interest rate path is well-projected until late September.

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