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Risk-On Spurred by Dovish Waller

CROSS ASSET
  • Latest tip lower in Treasury yields provides fresh impetus for the rally in USD pairs, with EUR/USD looking to show above the $1.10 handle for the first time since August - move coincides with risk-on in equities, as the NYSE TICK index shows significant buy interest on the way higher in the e-mini S&P.
  • As noted below, the upside in risk coincides with dovish tones from Fed's Waller - countering the more inline with exp. Comments from Bowman, who favours hiking rates further if inflation progress stalls.
  • Key dovish quotes by Waller (quoted by Nick Timiraos):
  • Waller: "If you see this [lower] inflation continuing for several more months, I don't know how long that might be—3 months? 4 months? 5 months?—you could then start lowering the policy rate because inflation's lower."
  • "If inflation goes down, you would lower the policy rate. There’s no reason to say you would keep it really high if inflation’s back to target, for example."
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