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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
RUSSIA
- Even though the political uncertainty over the Delta variant remains elevated in the short to medium term, the risk premium has been falling in Russia, with the 5Y CDS down nearly 40bps since the start of April to 83bps.
- The rise in inflation in H1 due to the economic uncertainty in addition to the RUB weakness (since March 2020) 'pushed' CBR policymakers to start a tightening cycle in 2021, raising rates by 125bps to 5.5%.
- As a reminder, CPI inflation rose to 6% in May, its highest level since October 2016, diverging significantly from the 4-percent target.
- However, the firm trend in oil prices and the recent decrease in the international geopolitical tensions with Russia have been supporting the RUB and decreasing the risk aversion.
- Russian equities still appear very 'cheap' (second cheapest after Turkey) according to our value scoring model; the risk is still elevated, but momentum on Russian stocks could accelerate if the trend on RUB persists in the coming weeks.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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