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Risk Proxies Fading Into Monday NY Crossover

FOREX
  • Risk proxies extending slightly lower into the NY crossover, with the e-mini S&P, NZD/USD and USD/JPY all trading close to the session's lowest levels as the softer-than-expected Chinese GDP and a phase of profit-taking after the post-US CPI rally brings down prices. Volumes across G10 sit slightly below average for this time of day: EUR futures are trading ~20% below what you'd expect to see at this point of the session.
  • For NZD/USD, next support undercuts at 0.6325, the 38.2% retracement for the Weds-Fri rally from last week. Moves in the pair come ahead of this week's CPI - seen slowing to 0.9%, 5.9% for the Q/Q, Y/Y releases.
  • AUD/NZD continues to trade close to multi-month lows, but north of the mid-May lows.
  • We wrote overnight that the recent movement in AU-NZ differential can be attributed to the market adjusting its pricing to reflect the anticipation of the RBA catching up to the rate hikes that have already been implemented by the RBNZ. Since mid-March, the AU-NZ 1Y3M swap differential has moved from around -175bp to around -85bps.
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