August 12, 2022 09:00 GMT
EUROZONE JUN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION +0.7% M/M (FCST +0.2%), MAY +2.1%r M/M
EUROZONE JUN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION +2.4% Y/Y (FCST +1.0%); MAY +1.6% Y/Y
- Industrial production saw a robust June expansion in the eurozone, up 2.4% y/y (up 0.8pp from May). The month-on-month expansion was 0.7% m/m, following the substantial upwards revision in the May data, from +0.8% m/m to +2.1% m/m.
- The June data is all above expectations, at a 0.5pp beat month-on-month and 1.4pp beat for the annual print.
- Expansions were registered in the production of capital goods (+7.6% y/y) and durable g=consumer goods (+4.0%), whilst energy stabilised (+0.0%). Soft contractions were seen for intermediate goods (-0.5% y/y) and non-durables (-1.1%), hinting at slowdowns in demand.
- Substantial discrepancies are seen across national IP numbers (see graph below).
- More recent developments in the gas supply through Russia are cause for concern regarding euro area industry going forward, leading some sell-side analysts to shift forecast a German industry contraction for Q3 and Q4.
- The ECB will be closely monitoring signs of contraction across the bloc ahead of the September 8 meeting, with a front-load-and-pause tactic remaining the most likely.
Keep reading...Show less