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Robust September Retail Sales But Volumes May Have Been Flat

AUSTRALIA DATA

Retail sales in September were stronger than expected rising a solid 0.6% m/m and 17.9% y/y, despite depressed consumer confidence. The pace of monthly sales was in line with August and the annual rate only slowed slightly to 17.9% y/y due to the start of post-lockdown spending boosting September 2021.

  • This data confirms that the RBA still has a number of rate hikes to go. But inflation also rose 0.6% m/m in September suggesting sales volumes were close to flat. So Friday’s real retail sales data for Q3 will indicate if volumes also held up over the quarter.
  • September sales have risen in every month of 2022 and have averaged +1.0% m/m.
  • September strength was driven by food retailing, clothing & footwear and restaurants. And sales were also boosted by the additional public holiday in September when many retailers stayed open.
Australia retail sales vs consumer confidence

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS/Refinitiv

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