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Rolls-Royce (ROLLS Ba1[P]/BBB-[P]/BBB-[P]): H124 Preview

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Potential for further rating upgrades if guidance can be maintained or upgraded, which could help spreads outperform. Fundamentals in the sector are solid, with further supply chain developments the main downside risk.


  • Rolls is expected to post another strong result on Thursday with consensus pointing to +9% revenues and +10 EBITDA YoY. That’s despite ongoing supply chain issues in aerospace. Orders in the sector are robust
  • On that basis leverage should tick down again on EBITDA growth and positive cash flow; it’s already quite conservative for the rating and better than Moody’s upgrade threshold, as is liquidity. Margins improvement needs to be “sustainable” which seems to be the case.
  • ROLLS spreads can be noisy with the bonds quoted on cash price due to their history in HY. While equity has been on a good run, credit has been mostly sideways since rallying in January. Spreads are currently towards the wide end of low triple B industrials.

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