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RUB: Commerzbank Comment on RUB Price Action Following Latest Sanctions

RUB
  • Commerzbank note that the RUB appreciated presumably because sanctions now blocked MOEX trades in USD and EUR, which resulted in participants dumping their existing balances of USD and EUR. This move proved sharp but temporary. They add that because of wider bid-offer spreads and other possible distortions, reported values could be even less reliable.
  • This could be behind stronger RUB exchange rates being reported in recent days, or it could be that the currency is genuinely enjoying appreciation pressure. The latter could be the result of a more supportive oil price, for example.
  • Commerzbank add that sanction developments are, arguably, not strictly new information for Russian market participants, hence not a source of depreciation pressure for the RUB. Even if it had been new information, the technical USD/RUB and EUR/RUB exchange rates probably could not move because private capital outflow cannot occur freely in USD or EUR any longer.

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