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RUB Diverges from Bullish Oil Markets, EU Extends An Olive Branch

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades +0.38% higher, bucking early gains in oil markets as geopolitical uncertainty keeps RUB on the back foot pending written responses from the West on Russia’s security proposals.
  • Oil markets remain in bull mode, with the substantial political risk premium in RUB driving the divergence from the Ruble’s robust underlying fundamentals.
  • The EU has seemingly softened its response following Russia’s frustration-led escalation last week – promising not to disconnect it from SWIFT or impose sanctions preemptively.
  • This seems like an olive branch to bring Russia back to the negotiations table, but the primary focus remains on the written responses.
  • Russia remains intent on conducting drills with Belarus, but these are far enough out (Feb 10-20) that they could be dropped as a symbolic concession from Russia if relations improve.
  • USD/RUB remains volatile in the 75.50-77.00 range, responding to shifts in the political narrative – making a tactical approach necessary in the near-term as we navigate recent tensions.
  • Current account data is expected to show a robust improvement, adding to RUB’s supporting fundamentals.
  • Intraday Sup1: 76.015, Sup2: 75.5636, Res1: 76.537, Res2: 76.8878
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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