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RUB Eyes Weekly Inflation for Clues about CBR's Next Move

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB closes the early breakout gap to 73.50 in line with a softer start for the greenback.
  • Surprise API draw (4.8m bbls vs 2.6m exp) supported upside in Brent this morning, trading above the $51 mark.
  • Focus today on GDP figures & weekly CPI (1600GMT), with the CBR still concerned about the recent spike in CPI expected to peak at 4.9% in Feb keeping the CBR cautious.
  • Downside surprise would ease some concerns about a more protracted rise in price pressures, while an upside surprise reinforces the cautious stance and could produce a hawkish reaction in RUB.
  • Move above 74.10 opens up 74.18-74.20 resistance band, followed by a more comprehensive move higher to 74.62.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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