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Corrective Pullback


Light Upside Call Spds


Dips Considered Corrective


Trend Signals Remain Bearish

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  • USD/RUB trades -0.21% lower this morning, tracking early weakness in the BBDXY and gains in both oil and natural gas markets.
  • The cross rose +0.19% in the lead-up to the FOMC minutes, with Putin making some key remarks on energy market stability and openness to talks with NATO and the EU on military and energy sector cooperation.
  • On the oil front, Brent shrugged off a larger than expected API inventories build at 5.2m bbls vs 700k exp to focus on expectations for higher demand on substitution effects from sky high natgas prices – which failed to moderate, despite promises of more supply from Putin.
  • Another sustained rise in weekly CPI has also bolstered expectations for a potentially larger +50bp hike at the next CBR meeting, despite Nabiullina's claims of "more standard size steps" at the prior meeting with markets pricing in +75bp of hikes in over a 3-6m horizon.
  • On the international front, the focus shifts to US PPI from the FOMC minutes which (as expected) pointed to a November taper but fell short of clarifying a rates lift-off date which markets have priced in around September 2022.
  • Intraday Sup1: 71.6864, Sup2: 71.557, Res1: 72.0654, Res2: 72.2705