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RUB, PLN Swing Back Amid Easing Tensions

EM FX
  • This week, we have seen that the renewed tensions in Russia-Ukraine conflict have generated strong swings in the EM FX market with RUB and CEE currencies being the most sensitive to the change in narrative.
  • Easing tensions have generated a recovery in RUB and CEE currencies (especially PLN); the ruble and zloty are the best performing currencies among the EM world so far this week, up 2% and 1.7%, respectively, against the greenback.
  • As a reminder, PLN is the most vulnerable currency among the CEE region to the Russia-related on-going tensions given Poland relatively bigger dependence on imports from Russia.
  • At the bottom, TRY remains the worst performer ahead of the CBRT meeting on Thursday (Feb 17); the central bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 14% despite CPI inflation surging to 49% in January.

Source: Bloomberg

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