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RUB Rally Resumes Ahead of US-Russia Talks, Dialogue Expected to Continue

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades -0.91% lower this morning, sustaining downside momentum from the past two sessions.
  • The cross traded choppily last week amid thin holiday markets, geopolitical uncertainty and turmoil in Kazakhstan – broadly ignoring gains in oil markets.
  • Analysts agree that RUB remains undervalued vs its more attractive macro fundamentals, but remains constrained by geopolitical uncertainty.
  • Today’s US-Russia talks may see some smaller concessions made on either side with an agreement for more talks, but are unlikely to deliver a meaningful de-escalation at this juncture as both remain resolute on their red lines.
  • Nevertheless, the resumption of dialogue is a marginal net-positive coming off a low base for relations.
  • Final core CPI data is key for the Feb CBR meeting with markets still anticipating another +50-75bp hike to tame persistent price pressures.
  • Recent RUB strength would have offset some FX passthrough, but this remains a key concern for the CBR.
  • US CPI, PPI & Retail sales are the key USD-side drivers this week with markets concerned about higher UST yields.
  • Intraday Sup1: 74.7558, Sup2: 74.5023, Res1: 75.5636, Res2: 75.7631
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
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