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Free AccessRUB Rally Resumes Ahead of US-Russia Talks, Dialogue Expected to Continue
- USD/RUB trades -0.91% lower this morning, sustaining downside momentum from the past two sessions.
- The cross traded choppily last week amid thin holiday markets, geopolitical uncertainty and turmoil in Kazakhstan – broadly ignoring gains in oil markets.
- Analysts agree that RUB remains undervalued vs its more attractive macro fundamentals, but remains constrained by geopolitical uncertainty.
- Today’s US-Russia talks may see some smaller concessions made on either side with an agreement for more talks, but are unlikely to deliver a meaningful de-escalation at this juncture as both remain resolute on their red lines.
- Nevertheless, the resumption of dialogue is a marginal net-positive coming off a low base for relations.
- Final core CPI data is key for the Feb CBR meeting with markets still anticipating another +50-75bp hike to tame persistent price pressures.
- Recent RUB strength would have offset some FX passthrough, but this remains a key concern for the CBR.
- US CPI, PPI & Retail sales are the key USD-side drivers this week with markets concerned about higher UST yields.
- Intraday Sup1: 74.7558, Sup2: 74.5023, Res1: 75.5636, Res2: 75.7631
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.