Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
RUSSIA
- In the past few months, we have seen that a rising number of central banks in the EM world have surprising the market by hiking more aggressively than consensus (to the exception of CBRT, which keeps cutting rates).
- CBR decided also to surprise investors by raising the policy rate by 75bps to 7.5% (vs. 25bps exp.), its highest level since June 2019 amid the surge in inflation risks.
- CBR mentioned in its statement that inflation is developing 'substantially above' the central bank's forecasts and is expected to be within the 7.4%-7.9% range by year-end, significantly higher than the 4-percent target.
- Sell-side firms forecast CPI inflation to be at 6.1% at the end of this year.
- RUB has strengthened sharply following the decision, with USDRUB testing the 70 support earlier.
- We have seen in recent months that the firm trend in oil prices have been supporting the ruble, which has been the best performer currency among the EM world this year, up 6.1% against the USD.
- RUBJPY is now trading slightly above its 1.6117 resistance, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibo retracement of the 1.30 – 1.8040 range (2020/21 high low); a clear break above that level would open the door for a move up to 1.6850 (76.4% Fibo). On the downside, first support stands at 1.60, followed by 1.5720.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok