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Ruble Plummets 2.12% as Ryabkov Threatens to Collapse Talks, Deploy Troops to LatAm

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades -0.74% lower this morning, pulling back below the 76 handle after yesterday’s sharp move higher.
  • Aggressive remarks from Ryabkov citing no point in future talks with the West and threats of Naval drills and troop deployments in Latam sparked a 2.12% sell-off in the RUB – meaningfully changing the status quo in relations with the West.
  • This frustration had been noted in recent comments this week, and the focus now shifts to Biden’s written response to see if talks will be salvaged or scrapped.
  • US sanctions treats were seemingly the straw that broke the camel’s back after no progress was made with US, NATO and OSCE talks.
  • RUB will remains sensitive to geopolitical headline risks today and into next week, with weakness also adding weight to passthrough pressures to inflation via the FX channel.
  • 3x6 FRA-Mosprime spreads have risen sharply (+44bp) – hovering around +144bp this morning as markets brace for further tightening in Feb.
  • Speeches from Lavrov and Nabiullina will be eyed this morning alongside US retail sales this afternoon.
  • Intraday Sup1: 75.5636, Sup2: 75.2853, Sup3: 75.063, Res1: 76.2144, Res2: 76.537, Res3: 76.8878
  • 3x6 FRA-Mosprime Spreads


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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